In the Earnings Spotlight: Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

by | Mar 10, 2022

Revenues and earnings won’t matter. RIVN must prove it can start churning deliveries.

RIVN reports Q4 earnings today aftermarket. Consensus calls for $(2.05) on sales of $64 million. These numbers don’t matter. The only metric investors will be watching for is production and delivery guidance for Q1 and full-year.

It’s been a long way down. Rivian’s IPO in November raised nearly $12 billion–making it the largest IPO in the U.S. since Facebook (FB) in 2014. The stock was up more than 21% from its initial opening price to the close of trading on Nov. 12, 2021, three trading days after the IPO. RIVN shares are now down ~80% from their all-time high of almost $180 in late November (shares have been weak into the print, and trade at ~$40 as of this writing).

Like LCID, expect RIVN to guide down. Having now witnessed the post-earnings selloff at EV upstarts Lucid Group (LCID) and Stellantis (STLA), it’s clear that supply chain issues are affecting both production and profitability for startup EV makers.In 2021, RIVN produced 1,015 vehicles and delivered 920. Consensus 2022 estimate of 40,000 vehicles looks too high in light of the above.

RIVN: Long way down: Down 80% from peak and 60% YTD

RIVN shares have tumbled since its hot IPO last year.

Price hike wasn’t handled well. Rivian came under fire for announcing a price hike, citing supply challenges and higher costs. However, the price increase also removed low end options. Many customers who previously gave a deposit had to cancel their pre-orders—a public relations disaster.

Red flag: overboarding. From a governance standpoint, two board members are already overboarded: Jay T Flatley is a director at three other companies: Zymergen (ZY), Denali Therapeutics (DNLI), and Coherent (COHR). Pamela Thomas-Graham is a director at four other companies: Bumble (BMBL), Compass (COMP), Peloton (PTON) and Anthemis Digital Acquisitions I (ADAL).

RIVN Board Diversity Snapshot

Source: Boardroom Alpha

No compelling reason to rush in here

Short interest creeping up. 9% of the float is short. Short interest (~35M shares) has crept up from month-ago levels.

Market cap ~ 50% cash. At some point, RIVN becomes a value play, which sounds funny in a hypergrowth market. RIVN has ~$17 billion in cash. At ~$35B market cap, ~49% of RIVN’s market cap is cash.

Buckle up, it’s going to be exciting. Despite the pullback, we don’t see any fundamental catalysts for RIVN stock. Given the squeeze setup into the print, re choose not to spin the roulette wheel ahead of the quarter.It’s impossible to claim any real insight on what production could look like next quarter or for 2022. Ultimately, we still think there is more downside than upside. If 2022 has taught us anything, it’s that Rivian, like the rest of the EV startup group (LCID, STLA etc.) should have delayed production until it could better manage its supply chain. Credit where credit’s due: Elon warned us all about “production hell” in 2019.

<a href="https://www.boardroomalpha.com/author/joanna/" target="_self">Joanna Makris</a>

Joanna Makris

Joanna has been analyzing and investing in emerging technologies for over two decades, having led the Technology, Media, and Telecom research at several global investment banks, including Mizuho Securities and Canaccord Genuity. Navigating stock market volatility since it all began in 2000. Banjo player, artist, and frittata-maker.

More from Boardroom Alpha

Greenbox POS Talking Blockchain and Stablecoin Coyni

Greenbox POS (GBOX), a fintech that utilizes block chain technology to create custom payment solutions co-founded by Ben Errez. The company up-listed to Nasdaq earlier this year, and its newly created stablecoin, Coyni, will be a separately publicly traded entity led by Paul Levine.

SPAC Sponsor Spotlight: Live Oak Merchant Partners

Investment firm Live Oak Merchant Partners is one of the leading “serial” SPAC sponsors, with views of maintaining a long term presence in the asset class. Led by Rick Hendrix and Gary Wunderlich, Live Oak brings both extensive capital markets and advisory experience with an investment track record. 

BM Technologies’ (BMTX) Luvleen Sidhu on Becoming a Bank and FinTech Evolution

BM Technologies (BMTX) is a digital, mobile-first FinTech that was born out of BankMobile and boasts ~2M accounts. BankMobile was originally founded by Luvleen Sidhu and developed at parent Customers Bank (CUBI), before ultimately separating and going public via SPAC Megalith Financial Acquisition in January 2021. BMTX recently announced a strategic merger with First Sound Bank and now has plans to become a FinTech bank.

Is Planet Labs (PL) Ready for Primetime as it Goes Public via DMYQ?

Earth Data company Planet Labs is going public thru dMY Technology IV (DMYQ) via a SPAC transaction. Founder and CEO Will Marshall, CFO Ashley Johnson, and dMY CEO Niccolo de Masi join us on the podcast to discuss Planet’s prospects and the SPAC transaction. 

Get it In Your Inbox

Subscribe to Boardroom Alpha's research to receive the latest on governance, SPACs, and people.


Know Who Drives Return

Objective, data-driven assessments for every public company director and officer.

SPAC Analytics & Database

Comprehensive research and analytics on every SPAC, sponsor, and deal. Real-time alerts, yields, red flags, filings, investors, and much more. API access to institutional grade SPAC database.

Disclaimer

The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but Boardroom Alpha cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon. 

This report contains opinions and is provided for informational purposes only – it does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. You should not rely solely upon the research herein for purposes of transacting securities or other investments, and you are encouraged to conduct your own research and due diligence, and to seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before you make any investment.  

None of the information contained in this report constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation by Boardroom Alpha of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination by BA that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.  

No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made on behalf of Boardroom Alpha as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Boardroom Alpha does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on all or any part of this research and any liability is expressly disclaimed.